Slower skies ahead for OTAs

Morningstar halves 2025 growth forecasts for Booking, Airbnb, Expedia, and Tripadvisor amid economic uncertainty

Morningstar has halved its 2025 revenue growth projections for major online travel companies - Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Expedia, and Tripadvisor - citing economic concerns such as President Trump’s tariffs and weakening consumer sentiment. Despite their varying levels of competitive advantages, all four companies are expected to experience significantly slower growth than previously forecast.

Key takeaways

Lowered growth projections for 2025:

• Booking Holdings: 3.5% (down from 8%)
• Airbnb: 5% (down from 10%)
• Expedia: 3% (down from 6%)
• Tripadvisor: 4% (down from 6%)

Economic factors: Tariffs and softening U.S. consumer sentiment are main reasons for the revised outlook.

Travel vs. economy: Historically, travel outpaces GDP growth, but it's still vulnerable during downturns.

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