Trump’s travel backlash may last for years

From trade wars to immigration crackdowns, the administration’s rhetoric and actions are fueling a long-term decline in international travel to America

The Trump administration’s trade wars, hardline immigration stance, and antagonistic rhetoric are already having a measurable chilling effect on international tourism to the United States. Industry experts warn that recent trends suggest a sharp downturn in foreign visitor numbers, potentially reversing years of growth and costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars. As global perceptions of the U.S. become increasingly negative, travel analysts caution that this slump could extend for years—impacting not only tourism revenue but also job markets and major international events on the horizon.

Key takeaways

• Significant decline in forecasts: Tourism Economics initially projected 9% growth in international inbound travel for 2024 but now expects a 5% drop, potentially worse depending on future developments.
• Economic impact: The revised forecast equates to a $64 billion shortfall in total U.S. travel spending for 2024, affecting both domestic and international travel markets.
• Sharp drop in Canadian travel: Airline bookings from Canada to the U.S. are down 70% year-over-year. Car travel from Canada to the U.S. also dropped 23% in February, per Statistics Canada.
• Mexican travel also declining: Previously projected to rise by 18% in 2025, travel from Mexico is now dropping; air travel from Mexico to the U.S. declined 6% in February.
• Rhetoric and policy drive sentiment: Aggressive rhetoric and policies targeting countries like Mexico, China, and Muslim-majority nations during Trump’s first term led to measurable drops in tourism—trends now worsening with new trade conflicts and inflammatory statements.
• Long-term risks: Analysts warn that anti-U.S. sentiment could reduce international attendance at major events like the 2025 Ryder Cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, and 2028 Olympics.
• No strategic benefit: Experts like Adam Sacks criticize the administration's approach as a series of “unforced errors,” arguing that antagonizing allies like Canada and Europe yields no benefit and only damages the tourism sector.

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