US travel demand could withstand stalled economy in 2024

Oxford Economics expects the first two quarters of the year will have no growth followed by full-year GDP growing by 1%

Tourism Economics forecasts no growth in U.S. gross domestic product during the first two quarters of 2024, but travel demand is expected to remain despite the slowdown, a significant change compared to past slowdowns

Key takeaways

• While hotel demand isn’t fully back, the main reason for that is overseas travel to the U.S. hasn’t fully rebounded. The month-to-month trends show performance across all key metrics improving relative to 2019;
• The latest data from travel data firm Longwoods shows a high percentage of people still plan to travel in the next six months. There’s some weakness at lower income levels, which is to be expected as inflation is economically regressive, so those households will be hit harder by higher prices;
• International outbound travel has rebounded in the U.S., reaching 20% above 2019 levels. Inbound international spending hasn’t recovered yet, and that’s unusual because normally there’s more spent in the U.S. by international travelers than spent abroad by U.S. travelers.

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