Why Chinese revenge tourism comeback is slim for the moment

Those who anticipate a revenge comeback of Chinese tourists ignored the demand fundamental of the tourism economy

The recent decade of 2010−2020 was the golden period of global tourism, which was driven by Chinese outbound tourism. China overtook Germany in 2012 in terms of tourist departures and the U.S. in 2013 in terms of expenditures to be the largest tourist source market.

Since no emerging economy could supplant the Chinese market any time soon, many destinations are expecting the return of Chinese tourists when the Chinese government eventually abolished its zero-Covid policy. But will Chinese tourists make a revenge comeback?

Key takeaways

• China’s growth may bounce slightly from 3.2% back to 4.4% in 2023 - yet this is still the lowest growth in the decade after the global financial crisis;
• The weak Chinese yuan against the dollar is eroding the purchasing power of Chinese outbound tourists who used to be the cash cow of many destinations;
• The biggest impediment to global tourism recovery lies at the extent to which supply can catch up with demand - many travel businesses still hesitate to resume supply to full capacity.

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